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My final project in my university was a study of the Brazilian m-payment scenario.
When I discussed this with people from France, the first problem was that some enterprises thought that as a developed country, the case from M-Pesa in Kenia could be used.

Let’s take a look first at M-Pesa, from Safaricom (vodafone):
7 millions users, 80% of market share for Safaricom and 50% of mobile penetration.
The M-pesa system started in 2007, but beginning 2008 Kenya had a civil war scenario, where the M-Pesa appeared as a real and useful way of transferring money over the country, also the population doesn’t trust in Banks (Europeans).

We have then 3 strong points in favor to M-Pesa:
1-Safaricom market share
2-Low bancarisation (and no trust/confidence in the bank system)
3-System boosted by a civil was scenario
Now let’s look at the Brazilian case:
100% of mobile penetration (80% pre-paid) and bancarization of 50%, population of 190millions.
Oi Paggo is a system from mobile operator OI. Since 2006 we have it, but it has less then 1million subscribers.

Why? Marketing failure? People don’t need it?

Well, I think the problem is the business model they adopted. Different from Kenya, the Banks in Brazil are really strong. As it happened in India, if a mobile operator tries to confront a bank in the m-payment business, the banks would do a lobby with the Brazilian Central Bank to make it illegal. Actually, they the banks tried.
Another point is the clients of the system. It’s based on a credit bill, just for post-paid mobiles. You buy something with the Oi Paggo system and will be credited in your mobile bill. And finally, to subscribe to the system you need to prove your earnings.

Let’s summarize:
1. Wrong business model
2. Wrong clients (post-paid)
3. Wrong clients again (need to prove earnings)
In my study, the correct model for a M-Payment in Brazil would need to:
1. Make a partnership with the Banks.
2. Focus on pre-paid mobiles (80% of all mobiles in Brazil!)
3. Aim in the correct clients -> with less or leak access to the financial system.

It seams that other people thinks like me. In the past couple months we have seem partnerships from the Banks and Mobile Operators: Vivo + Itau-Unibanco and Banco do Brazil with Oi.

Yesterday I watched the Social Network movie. I won’t enter in the discussion about facebook or about technological startups in this post. The point here is the motivation.
I started to think, when was the last time I spent more then a day (direct) coding for personal reasons, not related to college, school or work?
I asked colleagues about this, neither have them.
The main point is that all of us can work hard on a project or idea, for doing this, we need a motivation. Salary or grades are the main purpose for the majority, but not for those who can have the self-motivation and the courage to set up your personal goals as their priorities.
Finally, having ideas is not the key element, but having the strength to work on them as your highest priority, building up your own motivation is.

First of all, Happy Birthday to me. \o/

News about LTE, a lot of them this month, actually. Since, my last big post about it, when I talked about the fight between Mobile WiMAX and LTE, a lot of things changed. Big funding raises from European Union will support the research for LTE, about US$ 25 million will help to develop it. For those, who don’t know, the 4G will be the next generation on mobile phones and PDAs, to give high speeds for us, up to 100 Mbps. The LTE’s improvements will be, comparing with 3G, high throughput, low latency, FDD (Frequency Division Duplexing) and TDD (Time Division Duplexing) on the same platform, and a simple architecture resulting in savings on the operating system. LTE will be as well compatible with old technologies as GSM and CDMA.

LTE Deployment partners

LTE Deployment partners

Verizon, north-american telecom company, did successful trials with LTE this month, in Boston and Seattle. They used 700 MHz spectrum in LG and Samsung devices to upload and download files, video streaming and navigate into web, of course. Add to that, the bet of Motorola, Nokia-Siemens, Sony Ericsson, LG, Samsung and Qualcomm to adopt LTE in their mobile phones, and the scheduled tests for LTE in Motorola phones in Japan next month. We can notice that LTE is very close to officialize his position as 4G technology, a big turnaround for a technology that was almost dead months ago.

Plus, FCC (Federal Communications Comission of USA) certificate the first  LTE base station for this country, Alcatel-Lucent base stations. It’s a high performance compact base station designed to help operators launch services quickly. To read more about it, visit 3g.co.uk, highly recommended.

Of course, all this new technology happens first in countries prepared to, where the governmental commissions set the standards for those new technologies, as reserve frequency spectra and how they will control the companies with this new techonology. What I can say, here in Brazil, things are very slow. Anatel, telecommunications commission of Brazil, don’t set those standards yet and the lobby between mobile operators and cable TV (using MMDS) probably will delay this definition. Definitely, that’s horrible for Brazil, a huge market with 160 million mobile phones, and it’s horrible for the companies who wants to enter this market.

LTE_logoAnyway, Nokia-Siemens believes that LTE could be launched here in 2011, only a year after the launch in Europe & US. Ericsson wants LTE in Brazil soon, but remembers that a new technology will be deployed only when the investments on 3G were paid. And 3G only got a ‘boom’ this year, 2009, reaching 5,5 million people, but promises to reach 100 million members in 2013 (counting the new 4G members).

What about WiMAX? Well, as I said, WiMAX will grow in developing countries market, as Brazil, China, Russia and India mainly with fixed broadband wireless,  letting LTE dominate broadband on mobile phones, smartphones and PDAs. In Futurecom 2009 (October in São Paulo, Brazil), some forecasts says that WiMAX could bring 38 billion reais (US$ 20 bi) only in Brazil the next few years. Intel, Google and Nextel bet high on WiMAX, 14 billion dollars to put it into the north american market, but only for fixed devices.

We will see what happens next, my bet stay the same: LTE and WiMAX will walk side-by-side!

Google_AndroidMIPS Techonologies, a microprocessor design firm, announced this week they will put the Google’s Android on home electronic devices and in an opensource code! There was known some companies who put it on netbooks as Acer and Asus, but none ever thought to put this operating system onto set top boxes, digital TVs, mobile internet devices (MIDs), home media players and VoIP systems.

But why that’s happen? Why all this rush to Android? Some said that’s because it’s easy to customize, is well-structured and versatile. The word is from Art Swift, vice president for marketing at MIPS. And he even said that Android is better than Google Chrome, what I’m not agree, because they are made for different purposes (android is simple, for small devices; chrome is bigger than that, google wants to compete with Microsoft Windows!).

MIPS is already testing his new devices with special customers who will have access to specific hardware and code optimisations before they are public available. MIPS intends to release DTV and set-top boxes using Android next year.

What we can conclude from that, it’s how Google is advancing in all flanks, since the browser Chrome, passing by many other services, as Gmail, Maps, Earth, Ventures, Analytics, Books, Docs…. All for free. Because that’s the trend on internet, offer services for free and earn money and success by other ways.

The NFC (Near Field Communication) technology allows ours mobiles to act as a contact-less smart-card. In other words, you can to buy things just approaching your mobile to it. Think about this technology as a way for your mobile to communicate with the world, if an announce has an RFID tag, you can “tag” it by approaching your mobile to the RFID tag and get some information about the announce. The Pass Navigo from Paris metro utilizes contact-less smart-cards: you have your card an just by getting it closer to the reader, your access is granted.

Now imagine doing that with your mobile.

The NFC technology brings us to a world where you’ll be able to get information about everything that is close to you. You are in front of a cinema announce, you “tag” it and you get in your mobile informations about the movie, the price, and you could even buy tickets for that movie.

In my vision, that’s on step closer to ubiquity, where we will be able to access information anywhere, at anytime.

We have all seen the latest news about the new Operating System (OS) from Google, Chrome OS. A system based on web access, it’s not a new idea, but it’s from Google! Ok, let’s remember other things: Android – the Google OS for mobiles, then, we had Chrome, Google’s Browser! We all know that google force it’s in its power to innovate over the web, with its Apps and powerful servers all over the world. Google is loading its weapons over cloud-computing. And that’s the way things should be. Microsoft Office Online is already there. But late, Google Documents is among us for some time already! The power of everything been run from your browser makes much more easier to have applications for the end user, and really more cheap, the developers don’t have any more to be concerned if the application will be run in Mac OS, Windows, Linux, Symbyan, Blackberry, iPhone, etc. It’s like an Java Virtual Machine, but in a way much more clever, you won’t need more processing power, and this will make computers cheaper, and a real e-inclusion.

Click HERE to see the Video on TED.

In time of elections in India, where democracy should be reenforced, when they had big social problems; terrorism at Mumbai; conflicts over Pakistan, Afeganistan, Nepal, Tibet and Mianmar.

Looking into the future of India, to the problems which have to be solved for India (and for its 1,2 billion people) growing and have good education, health and quality of living for all. Nandan Nilekani talks about that in this TED video, with a know-how of an Indian informatics company’s CEO. The highlight of this video are on “Ideas on anticipation” where he talks about where India can be in front of the developed countries as a new system of pension and healthcare and e-governance.

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LTE (Long Term Evolution) logo

LTE - Long Term Evolution

The future of 4G is uncert yet. Two new standards will fight to be the “one”: Mobile WiMAX and LTE (Long Term Evolution).

WiMAX and LTE are both based on OFDM (Ortogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing), and both will be revolutionary regarding 3G technologies. WiMAX has already cheaper chipsets and 3 years ahead, although it’s a more expensive technology. On the other hand, LTE is regarded as the natural progression for the 3GPP and 3GPP2 line (GSM, EDGE, W-CDMA, HSPA, CDMA 1x, EV-DO) and his technology can support the old ones; and that’s really necessary in the first years of the implementation of the networks, of course, because no one would buy something that only work in the downtown of big cities.

Now, Finland (Nokia’s home) has already reserved a spectrum for LTE, for when it’s ready can entry in a short time period.  In Sweden, Telenor and Tele2 will build a LTE-based network in the 2nd semester of 2009, and plan to reach 99% of the swedish population by 2013, with a speed range between 80Mbps to 150Mbps. With other great mobile operators as China Mobile and Vodafone running LTE trials, LTE seems to be the choice for a next generation for the big mobile operators. So, where’s the place for WiMAX, already some steps ahead?

WiMAX

WiMAX

M-WiMAX has clearly his space in PDA’s and Smartphones, always on the front in technology. WiMAX has already 20 suppliers for equipment and chipsets which cost will drop dramatically until the end of 2009. LTE is yet on research although big companies are running fast to put it on market. WiMAX Forum predicts that by 2012 will be around 130 million subscribers, in both mobile and fixed networks, another good thing. Yet, LTE and M-WiMAX are not totally compatible in their technology, which excludes the total merge between phoning and internet in only one techonology.

My guess is that LTE and WiMAX will walk side-by-side in the next years, LTE attending cellphones and smartphones using a network already built for 3G, and with his “new gadgets” being expanded at time mainly on developed countries (as Germany, UK and Japan) which already has his fixed broadband internet built. WiMAX will have his place mainly on developing countries (Brazil, China and Russia) which as larger countries they are will bet high on WiMAX to supply broadband internet by wireless transmission because that’s cheaper than install kilometers and kilometers of cable, so in this countries WiMAX will get a higher penetration than in Europe, i.e.

Actuality
We have been hearing about mobile payments for a while. Services like banking, checking sold and paying bills are already ready for our use. In developed countries this services haven’t yet been widely accepted because of some factors:
• Use facility, security notion and service cost.
When you consider a population already used to plastic cards and their implicit security, you won’t change their mind that using their mobile can be easier or more secure, because it simply is not. But when we consider developing countries, it changes the picture. Today there are countries in Africa with more than 50% of mobile penetration and less than 10% of “bankarized” people. In my opinion, this is the real market for actual Mobile Payments systems.

Banking the unbanked
Banking the unbanked is the real deal of M-Payments systems in developing countries. People with no access to bank accounts and no notion about money saving/administration will gain the opportunity to have it, and also, in developing countries we have to consider the aspect of security and violence. Replacing the money and money transaction to a mobile makes the stealing of money a more complex deal.
Also, the Remittance market must be considered. In 2006, based on World Bank Reports, there were more then 200b$ transferred from developed countries to developing ones. Foreign workers send back money to their homes and families. With a M-Payment system, the sending of money back to home can be made ease and less expensive.
Considering this aspect, M-Payments to developing countries can be a way to give then more grown opportunities.

Technologies
Developed countries: NFC (Near Field Communication)
Developing countries: USSD, SMS, IVR. All of them present in actual GSM Network (2G).
I believe in USSD as the main technology for M-Payments: Old technology with new usage, simple and 100% of mobiles covered.

Future expectations
I’ll divide my future expectations in two segments: Developed and Developing countries:
In one hand, for developed countries I believe that the key factor for m-payments will be the idea of contact-less payments. NFC technology mainly. M-banking also, but more like an iPhone or Google app installed in you mobile (or MID – Mobile Internet Device), making it easy to make simple bank operations – checking balance, quick transfers.
On the other hand, in developing countries we have a different scenario, considering the big part of the population that have access to mobiles, mainly we have pre-paid accounts. In Brazil we started 2009 with 80% of mobile penetration and 80% of this mobile accounts being pre-paid ones. We already have some scenarios being explored:
• Cash in – out
• Transfer (National and International)
• Retail Payments
• Bill Payments
• Banking
• Credit issuing

One aspect that will limit Mobile Payments systems is regulation. We need to have a strict law regulation” to regulate money laundering and terrorism. How to do that?
One solution is limiting maximum account balance, the number of diary transactions and their amount, doing all this fallowing KYC (Knowing your customer) directives and keeping record of all transactions. The question is: will the culture of developing countries accept it?
But wait for it, 10 years have already passed since the first m-banking application, and we still have years to see full implementation and use of it. In developed countries the most optimistic survey expect of 30% of NFC use in 2013. In my view, we’re still years away of seeing the NFC use as we have with Plastic Cards.

Mindsets

I’ve read a book this week that really meets this blog idea:
MINDSET, from John Naisbitt.

It’s really a good book, with a great view of the world, just remember that John Naisbitt is the author of Megatrends.

In this book, Naisbitt describes 11 mindsets:
1. While many things change, most things reamin constant
2. The future is embedded in the present
3. Focus on the score of the game
4. Understanding how powerful it is not to have to be right
5. See the future as a picture puzzle
6. Don’t get so far ahead of the parade that people don’t know you’re in it
7. Resistance to change falls it benefits are real
8. Things that we expect to happen always happen ;ore slowly
9. You don’t get results by solving problems but by exploiting opportunities
10. Don’t add unless you substract
11. Don’t forget the ecology of technology

I’m still learning to “reset my thinking” to see the future… and this blog is a way to try it.

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